Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Apr 09 2024 03:55:03 AWUS01 KWNH 090354 FFGMPD MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-090920- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0136 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1154 PM EDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Areas affected...northeastern TX to AR/LA border Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 090353Z - 090920Z Summary...A threat for flash flooding is likely to continue for parts of northeastern TX into northern LA/southern AR and possibly western MS. Rainfall rates ranging between 1-3 in/hr and additional totals of at least 3-5 inches are expected through 09Z. Discussion...0330Z radar imagery from northeastern TX into northern LA showed ongoing heavy rain with rainfall rates via local Wunderground networks showing hourly accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the past couple of hours. There was an axis of higher reflectivity observed to be oriented roughly west to east across the region near and just south of I-40, located just north of an elevated convergence axis centered near 850 mb as seen on area VAD wind plots at 03Z, supported by 850 mb peak southerly winds near 50 kt as sampled by KLCH, converging toward southeasterly 850 mb winds at KSHV near 20 kt. PWATs varied across TX into LA but were 2+ standardized anomalies above average, measuring 1.9 inches on the 00Z KLCH RAOB. The Arklatex and nearby locations were, and are expected to remain, under a favorable upper level divergence max positioned within the right entrance region of a 110 to 130+ jet extending from northern AR/southern MO into the OH Valley, and...to a lesser extent...left exit region of an upper jet max crossing the Rio Grande Valley into eastern TX. Latest RAP forecasts and infrared satellite trends indicate some potential for the low level axis of convergence to migrate northward over the next few hours, but steering flow nearly parallel to that convergence axis will support an extended period of training with heavy rain. MUCAPE is currently highest over western locations, but some expansion of instability to the east is possible through the overnight. Hourly rainfall of 1-3 inches should be expected at times along with additional totals of at least 3 to 5 inches in some locations by ~09Z. Areas of ongoing flash flooding are expected to expand in coverage overnight as these higher rates overcome drier antecedent conditions, with an immediate focus along the I-40 corridor from near Tyler, TX into Ruston and perhaps Monroe, LA. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4cZaYyWmyDUqTeRTaNsL_UJNMdMgrMOqYIXFDqXhElLOAXdgyR117obHN9gtPY9vj2Pf= ynP7k7UTh73995vUHKacQ6E$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...JAN...LZK...SHV... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 33629358 33599191 33349096 33109057 32519061=20 32189147 32029268 32009465 31879663 32409688=20 33059606=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .