Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0385
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 08 2024 21:35:36

ACUS11 KWNS 082135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082135=20
TXZ000-082330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0385
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0435 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024

Areas affected...Portions of West/Northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 082135Z - 082330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large to very large hail (2-4 inches
in diameter) are expected this evening, with convective initiation
after 22z. Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show a steady increase in
agitated cumulus development within a north-south oriented corridor
across portions of West Texas. These trends are coincident with a
southerly influx of richer low-level moisture across this region,
characterized by surface dew point temperatures in the mid-to
upper-50s F, beneath cooler mid-level temperatures with northward
extent. Meanwhile, temperatures have risen into the upper 70s F amid
strong heating, yielding 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. SPC mesoanalysis
shows CIN has mostly eroded across the region in the last hour,
indicating convective initiation may be imminent.

The plume of richer low-level moisture is expected to continue
advancing northward and impinge upon a diffuse cold front positioned
across parts of Northwest Texas. The combined effects of surface
convergence/heating will allow further destabilization and erosion
of the cap after 22z, with scattered thunderstorms expected
thereafter. Strong deep-layer shear and elongated/straight
hodographs should yield discrete supercells, with large to very
large hail (2-4 inches in diameter) the primary hazard initially.
Relatively weak low-level shear is expected to limit the initial
tornado potential, but as the low-level jet increases into the early
evening hours, the tornado potential may increase if storms can
remain discrete.

...Karstens/Bentley/Hart.. 04/08/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!64Zr081solKD_Z0J5Sd_GQcbo2EpocgPj4bG507wQwTRYax2z8q-6sDqqdH7lJysp_yrKojsd=
RR_1NH6HDAH_I5JPG4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   30710081 30800165 32010196 32980225 33880102 33869956
            33549869 33219844 32669805 31999836 31549955 31369989
            30860030 30710081=20


=3D =3D =3D
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