Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0384
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 08 2024 19:50:07

ACUS11 KWNS 081950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081949=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-082145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0384
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024

Areas affected...eastern portions of central Texas into adjacent
western Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 90...

Valid 081949Z - 082145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 90 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for severe hail, and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes, may continue to increase with a couple of evolving
supercells, before thunderstorms possibly begin consolidating into
an organizing cluster near and north of the College Station and
Huntsville into Lufkin vicinities toward 5-6 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have increased in coverage and intensity
within a narrow corridor, which likely coincides with the
northern/leading edge of stronger mid-level inhibition, beneath
building ridging within the subtropical branch of westerlies.=20
Models suggest that one on two speed maxima within this regime will
contribute to strengthening upper divergence along this corridor
during the next few hours, supporting potential for considerable
further upscale convective growth.

A couple of supercells which have recently evolved to the southeast
of the College Station and Huntsville vicinities may continue to
intensify in the near term, aided by increasing inflow of moist
boundary-layer air characterized moderately large CAPE, in the
presence of strengthening shear.  Gradually, though, it appears that
forcing associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may
tend to become focused to the north of College Station and
Huntsville into Lufkin vicinity, where strongest storms may evolve
into an increasingly organized cluster by 22-23Z.

...Kerr.. 04/08/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5e1aflgstvUqLmYSwqxhF5rv_F72s3nVeKNHDVcQHSlc89de3DKFfV2LcW_OBOEoVSsvOIxi6=
INjKXUFvDFJV-3sIs0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   30879632 31769595 32149397 31559349 30849365 30529494
            30449572 30369612 30879632=20


=3D =3D =3D
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