Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Apr 05 2024 19:44:43

ACUS01 KWNS 051944
SWODY1
SPC AC 051942

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

....Discussion...
No changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time.

...Goss.. 04/05/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024/

....Northern Rockies...
Associated with the exit region of the polar jet related to the
Western U.S. upper trough, forcing for ascent and modest
moisture/buoyancy will lead to at least widely scattered
thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon. These storms should generally
focus across eastern Idaho and far western Montana this afternoon,
and then additional parts of western/southern Montana and Wyoming
into this evening. Steep lapse rates and sufficient buoyancy could
allow for some stronger storms capable of gusty winds/hail, but
organized/sustained severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.

....Coastal Southern California...
Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will remain a possibility within
the post-frontal environment beneath the mid/upper-level trough,
where mid-level temperatures (500 mb) are generally between -25C to
-30C. While a couple of east/southeastward-moving stronger storms
could materialize through the afternoon near far southern California
coastal areas, severe thunderstorms are unlikely given the limited
boundary layer moisture and buoyancy (generally a couple hundred
J/kg MUCAPE at most).

$$

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