Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 04 2024 19:57:03

FOUS30 KWBC 041956
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024

Day 1
Valid 16Z Thu Apr 04 2024 - 12Z Fri Apr 05 2024

....16Z Update...

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman

Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 05 2024 - 12Z Sat Apr 06 2024

....2030Z Update...

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 06 2024 - 12Z Sun Apr 07 2024

....2030Z Update...

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

....Eastern Nebraska...

A warm front east of a developing low will move across eastern
Nebraska Saturday afternoon and evening. Increasing Gulf moisture=20
moving in from the southeast and forcing with the front and low=20
will result in scattered shower and thunderstorm activity.=20
However, moisture will be limited, instability will be there...between
500-1,000 J/kg...but is far from impressive, and FFGs are high in
that area with recent dry weather. Thus, while the isolated flash
flood potential in this area is higher than 0, it does not yet=20
reach the 5 percent Marginal threshold. The area will continue to
be monitored for a possible future Marginal risk upgrade.

Wegman

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6eEOEMCb1kl9EU6ktv7eUYxIDipv6-4ywG7Pe04L-ln0=
JzQzYLXvZcEAyEisSqVfl6U7f8D9AFsdcWejbxEwvC-GYcs$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6eEOEMCb1kl9EU6ktv7eUYxIDipv6-4ywG7Pe04L-ln0=
JzQzYLXvZcEAyEisSqVfl6U7f8D9AFsdcWejbxEwq0MLlL0$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6eEOEMCb1kl9EU6ktv7eUYxIDipv6-4ywG7Pe04L-ln0=
JzQzYLXvZcEAyEisSqVfl6U7f8D9AFsdcWejbxEwlbNud4k$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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