Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 04 2024 16:27:33

ACUS01 KWNS 041627
SWODY1
SPC AC 041625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ID INTO WESTERN MT...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible this
afternoon/evening from Idaho into western Montana.

....Synopsis...
A highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS through
Friday morning, with a deep midlevel trough moving slowly inland
over the Pacific coast, and a separate/deep low making gradual
eastward progress over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England.  Cold
midlevel temperatures and resulting conditionally unstable
low-midlevel lapse rates will result in weak buoyancy and low-topped
convection/isolated lightning flashes today from the upper OH Valley
into the Mid-Atlantic.  Out west, there will be some potential for a
strong storm or two along the more north-south front across western
ID and up to an east-west frontal segment across western MT.
Profiles are closer to saturated today compared to yesterday at
BOI/TFX, and associated clouds will tend to slow surface heating
along and east-through-south of the frontal segments.  Still, there
will be enough buoyancy for a low-end wind/hail threat, given strong
deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear/long hodographs.

...Thompson/Kerr.. 04/04/2024

$$

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