Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Apr 04 2024 00:06:11

FOUS30 KWBC 040005
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
805 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024

Day 1
Valid 01Z Thu Apr 04 2024 - 12Z Thu Apr 04 2024

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

A deep layer cyclone lurks across the Upper Midwest, though
secondary cyclone development on the strong side of April
climatology has occurred across portions of the Mid-Atlantic=20
States southeast of the cold air dam. Convective elements remain=20
with the area of moderate to heavy rainfall within the cyclone's
warm air advection pattern. The 18z HREF probabilities of 0.5"+=20
and 12 hour probabilities of 2"+ were used along with radar=20
reflectivity trends to reduce the risk areas substantially. The=20
region experienced 200-300% of their seven day average rainfall=20
before 12z Wednesday, and it has rained a bit since. Hourly rain=20
totals to 1" with local amounts into the 2-3" range remain=20
possible, so kept with the Marginal and Slight Risk levels.

Roth


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 04 2024 - 12Z Fri Apr 05 2024

....2030Z Update...

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 05 2024 - 12Z Sat Apr 06 2024

....2030Z Update...

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-ASwyYNXYpFZsz2_rTHv131h8jiosJt9KYE8dzhkou8N=
Vdl05hsyloKQUXDweJW9i4spLx9kvJX00N2tmnhn5lPwNsc$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-ASwyYNXYpFZsz2_rTHv131h8jiosJt9KYE8dzhkou8N=
Vdl05hsyloKQUXDweJW9i4spLx9kvJX00N2tmnhnBvOqV6A$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-ASwyYNXYpFZsz2_rTHv131h8jiosJt9KYE8dzhkou8N=
Vdl05hsyloKQUXDweJW9i4spLx9kvJX00N2tmnhn9iKxTeE$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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