Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0370
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 03 2024 18:23:23

ACUS11 KWNS 031823
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031822=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-031945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0370
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024

Areas affected...North-central North Carolina into Southeast
Virginia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 87...

Valid 031822Z - 031945Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 87 continues.

SUMMARY...Discrete storms ahead of the cold front will pose the
greatest risk for a tornado this afternoon. The northward extent of
the risk will depend on how far north the warm front lifts.

DISCUSSION...Currently, the mesoscale environment most supportive of
a tornado exists near/south of the warm front in north-central North
Carolina into southeast Virginia. In particular, a storm near the
Granville/Vance County line has intensified in the last hour. This
discrete storm will continue northeastward into an area of surface
heating through anvil cirrus. The AKQ VAD shows a fairly large
low-level hodograph. Discrete storms ahead of the surface font will
pose the greatest short term tornado risk. Some northward lifting of
the warm front is possible, but uncertain. Tornado risk along the
front is also unclear, though the strongest activity has generally
tended to be more discrete elements embedded within weaker
precipitation. That said, some risk, though lower, will also exist
along the front.

...Wendt.. 04/03/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5utbOoufjdbyR635ShKX-ZuTij_p-IYW4UpFqmW_dLP4XBCsOytYLgnShrUqEQjEBc_NZdlNc=
DGag3M-osGniCqonM4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   35847825 36027888 36227937 36497943 37217807 37517709
            37807654 37697618 37157632 36507694 36007750 35877780
            35847825=20


=3D =3D =3D
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