Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0368 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Apr 03 2024 15:20:49 ACUS11 KWNS 031520 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031520=20 MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-031715- Mesoscale Discussion 0368 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northern NC into VA...MD...and DE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20 Valid 031520Z - 031715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The threat for severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, a few tornadoes and perhaps some hail should gradually increase over the next couple of hours. Watch issuance will probably be needed. DISCUSSION...15Z surface observations show a front draped southwest to northeast across VA into MD/DE, with a surface low centered over southwest VA. This low is forecast to slowly deepen as it develops northeastward along the front towards central VA/MD by late this afternoon. Although clouds remain widespread across much of the Mid-Atlantic, a moist and gradually destabilizing airmass is present along/south of the front into NC. A lobe of ascent associated with the left exit region of a strong upper-level jet and a mid-level vorticity maximum over the central Appalachians will likely encourage additional convective development in the next 1-2 hours across western into central VA. This activity will likely become organized, with the potential for a mix of small bowing clusters and supercells possible given the presence of very strong deep-layer shear. Instability may tend to remain fairly muted given the widespread cloud cover. Still, MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg should eventually develop with continued low-level warming/moistening, and given steepened mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z RNK sounding. Damaging winds will be possible with any robust cluster that can develop and track northeastward. A tornado threat should exist with any supercell, as 0-1 km shear of 35-40 kt and ample effective SRH should encourage low-level updraft rotation. Isolated hail may also occur with any convection that can remain semi-discrete. Given expectations for a gradually increasing severe threat in the next 1-2 hours, watch issuance will probably be needed. ...Gleason/Thompson.. 04/03/2024 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8eBgt8B0VeHMhYIxmQHokOsiyzGDwSqpeP_gi-WcXj5vTXHceyf1sCsI4oIxNM-aVhRfymzhz= EiRsGtkt7LX-ix865A$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 36407975 36987971 37767885 38757723 38867601 38647503 38337502 37517552 36757638 36127742 36087899 36407975=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .