Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Apr 02 2024 23:26:28 AWUS01 KWNH 022326 FFGMPD PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-030525- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0131 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 725 PM EDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the OH/TN Valleys into the Central Appalachians Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 022325Z - 030525Z SUMMARY...Broken clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue through the remainder of the evening and into the overnight hours. A combination of heavy rainfall rates and locally sensitive/saturated soil conditions will likely result in at least scattered areas of flash flooding. DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery in conjunction with dual-pol radar shows broken clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms advancing across portions of the OH/TN Valleys, with the more organized/stronger convective cells seen focused over areas of northern KY and southwest OH, with additional corridors of stronger storms also noted moving up from central TN into southeast KY. The activity continues to be driven by instability pooling northeastward well ahead of a cold front and with a relatively moist southwest low-level jet of 40 to 50 kts in place. MLCAPE values over northern KY and southwest OH have risen to as much as 1000 to 1500 J/kg, with somewhat lesser values noted farther southeast over eastern KY and WV where earlier convection has acted to stabilize the boundary layer to an extent. Over the next few hours, some resurgence of instability off to the northeast back into areas of the central Appalachians is expected, and with rather strong effective bulk shear parameters still in place and deeper layer forcing arriving ahead of the upstream upper-level trough, at least broken coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms can be expected. Recent HRRR runs coupled with the experimental WoFS guidance suggest rather strong confidence in continuing to see some linear swaths of heavy rainfall associated with locally training areas of convection. Rainfall rates embedded within the stronger and more organized bands/clusters of thunderstorms are expected to reach 1.5" to 2"/hour heading through at least the remainder of the evening hours while instability and shear remain conducive for organized and sustainable updrafts. Thus, some additional rainfall totals may reach as high as 2 to 4 inches heading through at least the midnight time frame. Many areas across especially central and eastern OH, northern KY, central and northern WV, and western PA will be very sensitive to the additional heavy rainfall threat over the next several hours given how wet/saturated the soil conditions are. There are likely to be scattered areas of flash flooding as a result, with locally enhanced pockets of runoff expected. This will include an urban flash flood threat. Areas farther south down into southern KY and northern TN will be a bit more tolerable to the additional rainfall, but even here, there may be at least some isolated flash flooding concerns given the rather high rainfall rates and pockets of cell-training. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_S4pqmFzmoarqoVrq453A_yuVcg9OXuL8nuuRz5srp6ZJc3lkCsHlLmWdUHt-yoLdTaU= krXn6PP-XYuL470w0I39G8c$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...PBZ... RLX... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 41667971 40987861 39887896 38688017 37928114=20 36828284 36398434 36338534 37088600 38248509=20 39598353 40848221 41478113=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .