Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0358
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 02 2024 22:54:08

ACUS11 KWNS 022254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022253=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-030200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0358
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0553 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Mississippi...Central Alabama...Northwest
Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 022253Z - 030200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will become more numerous through the
evening, with an increasing risk of tornadoes and damaging winds.=20
Watch issuance is expected in the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...A very warm/moist and moderately unstable and only
weakly capped air mass is in place this evening across much of
southern MS/AL, with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s.  Recent
satellite/radar loops show isolate showers and thunderstorms
beginning to develop in this region.  Models have been consistent in
the development of a strong southerly low-level jet by mid-evening,
resulting in northward advection of the better moisture and
strengthening low-level wind fields.  Forecast soundings suggest
rapid enlargement of hodographs after dark, with parameters becoming
quite favorable for supercells capable of tornadoes and damaging
winds.  A tornado watch will be needed for parts of this region in
the next couple of hours as more robust convective initiation
begins.

...Hart/Guyer.. 04/02/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!99YqOWIvd-_gA8WLt7CsrVAXVNiqwlsEEohT1TXRRlBp8O_1NlzWAlMUHpRbL8RTernrehzuR=
2JyW7qKUM7HImDaQsw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   32258913 33668809 34968490 33758421 32548536 31578849
            32258913=20


=3D =3D =3D
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