Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0325
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 01 2024 20:50:53

ACUS11 KWNS 012050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012050=20
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-012245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0325
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern Missouri into parts of
central Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 012050Z - 012245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch may be needed within the next 1-2 hours as
additional storms may develop in east-central Missouri/central
Illinois. The environment is supportive of large/very-large hail and
damaging winds. The tornado threat is expected to increase this
evening as low-level shear increases near the boundary.

DISCUSSION...Cores within a broad area of precipitation have
occasionally pulsed in intensity. Some recent CAM guidance suggest
that additional storms will develop out of this activity within the
next 2-3 hours. While current wind profiles are not overly
supportive of tornadoes, storms will be near the warm front and
low-level shear should improve this evening as 850 mb winds
increase. Given the background environment and potential evolution
of this activity, a tornado watch will need to be considered.

...Wendt/Thompson.. 04/01/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9BHKA6zlZKyg7tOTxPbEGAsm9HCBz0-RXdM2F6dIKTILLlMQWVx2zkzCkA5DIYa9yvJQOV1Pf=
BMFr3Et8B6svJKYnsI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   39299311 39839092 39848842 39538742 39128758 38238994
            38109132 38389261 39299311=20


=3D =3D =3D
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