Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 31 2024 19:55:17

ACUS01 KWNS 311955
SWODY1
SPC AC 311953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024

Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL/IN...

....SUMMARY...
A few storms may produce large hail later this afternoon into
tonight from northern Missouri to central Illinois/Indiana.
Isolated large hail and/or wind damage may also occur this afternoon
from southern West Virginia into south central Virginia.

....20Z Update...
No changes were made to the previous forecast.

...Wendt.. 03/31/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/

....MO/IL to VA through tonight...
A largely east-west oriented baroclinic zone will drift slowly
northward as a warm front across MO/IL, well east of lee
cyclogenesis across eastern CO.  The potential for surface-based
storms along the warm front appears questionable, given lingering
capping with a relatively warm elevated mixed layer atop the
moistening boundary layer.  Much of the convection through the
period will likely be elevated atop the frontal surface and tied to
low-level warm advection.  There will be sufficient cloud-layer
shear for supercells capable of producing large hail, but confidence
in specific storm development this afternoon (see MD #315 for
additional information) versus tonight is relatively low.  Thus,
will maintain the conditional outlook area with few changes.

Farther east, some convection is ongoing in a loose cluster across
southern WV in association with weak low-level warm advection.  Some
expansion of the weakly unstable warm sector is expected into VA
through the afternoon, and a couple of storms could persist along
this corridor to near the VA/NC by mid-late afternoon.  There will
be a conditional threat for a somewhat high-based supercell or two
with an accompanying threat for isolated large hail and/or damaging
outflow gusts.

$$

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