Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Mar 31 2024 07:19:37 ACUS03 KWNS 310719 SWODY3 SPC AC 310718 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ....SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Tuesday from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, and southward into the central Gulf Coast states. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible across a broad area. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest from central Kentucky east-northeastward into West Virginia. ....Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. As instability increases across the warm sector during the day, widespread convective initiation is expected. Numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with a large MCS moving eastward into the central Appalachians by evening. Additional storms are expected to develop along and near a front in the Mid-Atlantic. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1000 J/kg during the afternoon across much of the moist airmass. Although instability should remain somewhat modest, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear will support a severe threat in most areas. While supercells will be possible, the more favored mode could be multicellular, as several line segments develop and organize during the afternoon. Wind damage will be associated with the faster-moving line segments, while large hail will be most common with rotating cells. Supercells, or the more the intense QLCS circulations could develop a tornado threat. The greatest tornado threat is forecast to be from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia, where a low-level jet should become focused in the late afternoon and early evening. ....Central Gulf Coast States... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the south-central U.S. on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will enable the airmass to become unstable by afternoon. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range during the afternoon ahead of the front. Scattered thunderstorms will likely initiate from near the front eastward across parts of the moist airmass. Strong deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the front will be favorable for a severe threat, especially in the northern Gulf Coast states where large-scale ascent will be more favorable. Wind damage and hail will be possible with the stronger multicells. An isolated tornado threat may also develop as low-level shear becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. ...Broyles.. 03/31/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .