Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 30 2024 17:20:36

ACUS02 KWNS 301720
SWODY2
SPC AC 301719

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...

....SUMMARY...
A corridor of large hail and perhaps a few damaging gusts is
forecast Sunday through Sunday evening primarily from northern
Missouri and central Illinois across central Indiana and far western
Ohio.

....Synopsis...
A large, positive-tilt upper trough will exist across much of the
West on Sunday, with a broad area of strong southwest flow aloft
across much of the Plains and Midwest. Ahead of the advancing
trough, gradual height rises will occur over the Mid MS and OH
Valleys, while midlevel temperatures remain cool with steep lapse
rates.

At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High
Plains, with a warm front extending east from northern MO across IL
and IN and into northern KY by late afternoon. A broad fetch of
southerly winds will result in warming south of the warm front, with
a return of upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints.

....Northern MO across central IL, IN, and far western OH...
Early to midday thunderstorms are expected over northern MO and
vicinity, on the nose of a low-level jet and where elevated MUCAPE
may reach 1000 J/kg. Forecast soundings reveal moisture rooted in
the 850-700 mb layer, beneath steep midlevel lase rates. Given 40+
kt effective shear, marginal hail may be supported with the early
activity.

As heating occurs south of the warm front, the ongoing activity
and/or new development along the southern flank/outflows may tend to
propagate in more of an easterly direction as surface-based
inhibition lessens. However, a sharp southern boundary appears
likely as a capping inversion remains near 700 mb. As such, it
appears that a narrow east-west oriented corridor of large hail and
perhaps damaging gust potential will exist, primarily from
west-central IL by mid afternoon and continuing into IN through
evening.

...Jewell.. 03/30/2024

$$

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