Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Mar 30 2024 16:28:03 ACUS01 KWNS 301627 SWODY1 SPC AC 301626 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR EASTERN OH INTO NORTHWEST WV... ....SUMMARY... Large hail (1 to 1.75 inches in diameter), isolated damaging gusts, and an isolated tornado or two will be possible later this afternoon/evening across eastern Ohio into northwest West Virginia. ....Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly inland over CA, with cool midlevel temperatures/weak buoyancy supporting the potential for isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. Farther east, low-level moisture will continue to increase across the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley as a modifying Gulf air mass spreads northward to the east of weak lee cyclogenesis across eastern NM/CO. The moistening will occur beneath a relatively warm elevated mixed layer, so the majority of the warm sector will likely remain capped through Sunday morning. The exception will be the northeast edge of the warm sector toward OH later this afternoon/evening. ....Eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening... In the wake of morning convection/clouds, surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F from west-to-east and boundary-layer dewpoints near 50 F will spread quickly eastward into OH through mid-late afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible after about 21z along the northeast edge of the destabilizing surface warm sector, immediately in advance of a weak surface cyclone moving eastward from northern IN into OH. Forecast wind profiles show long hodographs with some low-level hodograph curvature, which conditionally favors supercells. Though the specific number and duration of any supercells is still in question, there appears to be enough of a conditional severe threat to justify the addition of a SLGT risk area for parts of eastern OH and vicinity later this afternoon/evening. Large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will be the main threat, though isolated wind damage and an isolated tornado will also be possible. ...Thompson/Wendt.. 03/30/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .