Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Mar 30 2024 07:30:28 ACUS03 KWNS 300730 SWODY3 SPC AC 300729 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... A widespread severe threat is expected on Monday and Monday night from parts of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. All hazards, including large hail, wind damage and tornadoes, will be possible. The severe threat is expected to impact parts of the Ohio Valley Monday night. ....Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... A positively tilted upper-level trough will move across the western U.S. on Monday, as an associated 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet translates northeastward ahead of the system. The mid-level jet will reinforce a very strong wind field over a moist and unstable airmass during the day. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward into central Oklahoma, extending northeastward into north-central Missouri. Surface heating and low-level convergence near the front will likely result in widespread convective initiation during the afternoon. On the warm side of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to a moderately unstable airmass in most areas by afternoon. MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range across a broad corridor from north Texas northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. MCS development is expected along this corridor during the afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings along and near the instability axis at 00Z/Tuesday show very strong deep-layer shear in place. 0-6 km shear is forecast to peak in the 65 to 80 knot range as the nose of the mid-level jet passes over the warm sector. This feature will be associated with strong large-scale ascent over a broad area. The lift and shear will likely be favorable for a widespread severe threat. As storms rapidly increase in coverage during the afternoon, all three hazards appear likely including wind damage, large hail and tornadoes. The tornado threat may be greatest along and near a surface boundary that is forecast to extend eastward from a surface low across central and eastern Missouri. There, surface winds will be locally backed and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to be above 400 m2/s2. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steepest further to the southwest in central and eastern Oklahoma, where hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells. The developing MCS should also be associated with a widespread wind-damage threat as a mixed mode of supercells and multicell line segments move eastward toward the mid Mississippi Valley during the early to mid evening. The MCS should be accompanied by a severe threat that persists through much of the overnight period. ....Ohio Valley... Mid-level flow is forecast to be westerly across the Ohio Valley throughout much of the day on Monday. As moisture advection occurs on Monday, surface dewpoints will gradually increase into the 60s F across much of the region. In spite of this, instability is expected to remain weak during the morning and afternoon. A few severe storms may develop along and near the front, which is forecast to be located from central Illinois east-southeastward into southern Ohio. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats. The potential for severe storms should become more prevalent during the evening, as an MCS approaches the region from the west. The stronger storms within the MCS should be associated damaging gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado threat, especially as the brunt of the MCS moves through during the late evening and early overnight period. ...Broyles.. 03/30/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .