Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 29 2024 05:33:51

ACUS01 KWNS 290533
SWODY1
SPC AC 290532

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST...

....SUMMARY...
Marginally severe hail is possible with storms over portions of the
Midwest Friday night.

....Midwest...

Upper ridge is forecast to shift east across the MS Valley today as
a short-wave trough currently located over the lower CO River valley
advances into the central Plains by 30/00z. This feature will then
shift east, inducing weak height falls over the upper Midwest,
before progressing to near 87W longitude by the end of the period.
Latest model guidance suggests a LLJ will strengthen across the
central Plains early, then shift downstream into IL by 06z, in
response to the approaching short wave. While moisture is initially
quite scant across this region, there is reason to believe PW values
may increase to near one inch later this evening, with mean mixing
ratios expected near 8 g/kg.

Moisture is beginning to advance north across TX early this morning,
as evidenced by 50F surface dew points now approaching the DFW
Metroplex. While absolute moisture content will remain seasonally
low with this return event, 500mb temperatures will remain cold
(-20C) north of the midlevel jet. Forecast soundings suggest
elevated parcels will become weakly inhibited by mid evening, and
scattered convection should develop ahead of the short wave within
the warm advection zone. While the magnitude of instability will
remain a bit weak, steep midlevel lapse rates are expected to
support robust updrafts, the strongest of which could generate
marginally severe hail. Convection should initiate over eastern IA
then spread into northern IL/southern WI during the late
evening/overnight hours.

...Darrow/Bentley.. 03/29/2024

$$

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