Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 28 2024 07:16:53

AWUS01 KWNH 280716
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-281315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0115
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Areas affected...eastern North Carolina, northeastern South
Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280715Z - 281315Z

Summary...Convection has consolidated into bands with nearly 2
inch/hr rain rates just northwest of Wilmington recently.  These
trends are expected to continue for the next 3-6 hours, posing an
isolated flash flood threat.

Discussion...The onset of slightly stronger forcing for ascent
aloft (associated with mid-level waved embedded in southwesterly
flow aloft) and convergence along a surface boundary extending
from near ORF to near CRE was resulting in an increasingly focused
band of convection just northwest of Wilmington recently.  The
storms are in a very moist environment (1.5 inch PW values), with
elevated instability and orientation of the convection (parallel
to flow aloft) supporting training and 2-2.5 inch/hr rain rates.=20
These rates are falling on ground conditions characterized by 2.5
inch/hr FFGs, suggestive of an evolving flash flood threat with
the convection near Wilmington in the next hour or so.

Models/observations suggest a continued trend for increasing
convection (and perhaps upscale growth) through the next 3-4 hours
particularly along the surface boundary.  As this occurs, the
coverage of flash flood potential should increase especially where
training is most pronounced.  Eventually, upscale growth and
movement of the front should allow for propagation of storms
toward open waters of the Gulf Stream that should effectively end
the flash flood threat.  This process is expected to evolve
through 12-13Z.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5L5HWEEBTS11iuDeU0cT3LKHtSLZqhSZ7yjDsvSRMDKdc1jYntxFbQ1a1N0xKUZzHltZ=
w4d8MfbiWWqCDLxatVOrYwE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36617628 35977524 34537560 33147924 33398005=20
            34137967 35127877 36227730=20

=3D =3D =3D
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