Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Mar 27 2024 01:02:27

ACUS01 KWNS 270102
SWODY1
SPC AC 270101

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST GULF
COASTAL PLAIN...

....SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado
may continue tonight in the northeast Gulf Coastal Plain.

....Northeast Gulf Coast...
Primary mid to upper trough and embedded disturbances remain
displaced away from the region (i.e., Great Lakes and Midwest)
through tonight.  Broad, strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow
extends from the base of the larger-scale trough over South TX
northeastward across the northern Gulf and into the Southeast.
Ahead of a largely stalled cold front over the northern Gulf and
central Gulf Coast, a maritime airmass featuring lower 60s dewpoints
resides over the northeast Gulf Coast.  The 00z Tallahassee observed
sounding showed a deep moist layer with weak low-level lapse rates
and weak buoyancy (400 J/kg MLCAPE).  A persistent zone of low-level
warm-air advection will seemingly be the primary impetus for
sporadic storm development this evening into the overnight.  If a
few stronger storms can become sustained, a localized risk for wind
damage and perhaps a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

Elsewhere, diminishing instability with frontal-related convection
over eastern Lower MI and OH will continue to wane over the next
hour.  Severe thunderstorms are not expected with this activity.

...Smith.. 03/27/2024

$$

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