Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Mar 26 2024 00:56:50

ACUS01 KWNS 260056
SWODY1
SPC AC 260054

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI...

....SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes and scattered damaging thunderstorm gusts are
possible through tonight over portions of the northern Gulf Coast
states.

....Central Gulf Coast...
Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a potent mid- to
upper-level trough centered over the central U.S.  The belt of
strongest mid-level flow and forcing for ascent associated with the
upper trough, will focus over the mid MS Valley through tonight.
However, an extensive belt of strong southwesterly flow increasing
with height across the lower MS Valley has greatly enlarged
hodographs as strong low-level warm-air advection continues across
the central Gulf Coast through tonight.  As the upper system
accelerates eastward tonight into the MS Valley, a cold front will
push east into the mid MS Valley southward through the lower MS
Valley by daybreak.

The 00z Jackson, MS raob showed weak instability early this evening
with richer low-level moisture confined to the coastal plain (mid
60s deg F surface dewpoints).  The low CAPE/extreme shear setup will
continue to support organized line segments and perhaps several
embedded supercells this evening into the overnight.  An
accompanying risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes
will seemingly continue into the late night, especially if the
airmass sampled by the 00z Lake Charles raob can influence storm
activity, as the convective band gradually shifts east across the
central Gulf Coast states.

...Smith.. 03/26/2024

$$

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