Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Mar 25 2024 22:40:32 AWUS01 KWNH 252240 FFGMPD MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-260438- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0113 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 639 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Areas affected...central/eastern Louisiana into southern/central Mississippi Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 252238Z - 260438Z Summary...Localized training/cell mergers are supporting spots of 2 inch/hr rain rates at times - especially in central Louisiana.=20 These heavier rain rates should translate eastward, posing an isolated flash flood threat especially in sensitive/urbanized areas. Discussion...A couple of SSW-NNE oriented convective bands have materialized over central Louisiana over the past 2-3 hours. The bands have generally organized along and ahead of a remnant outflow from prior convection that was currently located from near SRC (Searcy, AR) to near BPT (Beaumont, Texas). Over the past half hour or so, this outflow has made enough eastward progression to undercut some of the central Louisiana convection, with remaining storms likely elevated but leveraging just enough instability aloft to maintain heavy rainfall atop areas that have experienced 2-3 inches of rainfall. Rates in most areas have fallen below areal FFG thresholds (generally holding in the 2.5-3 inch/hr range), and much of the flash flood threat has remained fairly isolated. These trends should keep the flash flood threat isolated in the short term. Over time, convection will continue to translate eastward, eventually crossing the Mississippi River as surface-based storms generally from US 82 southward. As this occurs, models suggest limited opportunity for training to develop especially where 1) surface-based instability exists to support deeper/stronger updrafts and 2) where the eastward-moving outflow boundary can slow its forward progression, allowing for more opportunity for training/repeating and cell mergers. This scenario (which should support 1.5+ inch/hr rain rates) is most likely to unfold along an axis from near Alexandria, LA to Jackson, MS through the evening.=20 These rates are still likely to fall below one- and three-hour FFG thresholds except on an isolated basis, and flash flood potential should remain isolated and localized near urban and/or low-lying areas. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_gPn9tj0HzeSCFfhJnjG7HMsOIkp9rOQ-QnIPnfoRbjCkiOdCU_peVxq7lZQAZXRlbFY= KONpjeskQpGiynGTFqrWdTg$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...LZK...MEG...SHV... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 33929033 33658911 32848885 32078885 31588926=20 30789116 30419309 31039324 31819297 32879217=20 33629127=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .