Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 25 2024 08:59:41

ACUS48 KWNS 250859
SWOD48
SPC AC 250858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Isolated/marginal severe potential on Day 4/Thursday should remain
confined along and south of a cold front that will advance
southeastward across the FL Peninsula through the day. An upper
trough over the Southeast should also continue eastward to the
western Atlantic by Thursday evening. Enhanced mid-level winds
should promote sufficient deep-layer shear to support organized
thunderstorms. However, modest instability and veering low-level
winds limiting convergence along the front will probably tend to
temper the magnitude and coverage of robust convection. Have
therefore not included a 15% severe area for Thursday across the
central/southern FL Peninsula. Once the cold front clears the East
Coast, severe potential appears minimal across the CONUS from Day
5/Friday until at least Day 6/Saturday. Gradual low-level moisture
return across the southern/central Plains and lower/mid MS Valley is
forecast in this time frame. But, mid/upper-level ridging and
capping concerns across these regions should tend to suppress most
convection.

By Day 7/Sunday into Day 8/Monday, most medium-range guidance shows
an upper trough/low moving from the eastern Pacific across the
western states. There appears to be a somewhat bimodal distribution
in various GFS/GEFS and ECMWF/EPS solutions regarding the eventual
ejection of this upper trough across the southern/central Plains.
Some guidance shows a more positively tilted and elongated upper
trough evolution, which could still support severe potential across
the southern/central Plains by early next week. Other solutions show
a more compact, neutral to negatively tilted trough ejection.
Stronger low-level mass response in this scenario would lead to
greater low-level moisture return, related stronger instability east
of a dryline, and a potentially better setup for severe convection
next Monday. Regardless, predictability remains far too low to add a
15% severe delineation at this extended time frame. But, trends will
be monitored.

...Gleason.. 03/25/2024

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