Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Mar 25 2024 00:42:35 AWUS01 KWNH 250042 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-250600- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0112 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 841 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Areas affected...west-central to north-central TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 250038Z - 250600Z Summary...Potential training of thunderstorms from SW to NE over west-central to north-central TX may lead to localized flash flooding through 06Z. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr and totals of 2-3 inches will be possible. Discussion...00Z regional radar imagery over the Southern Plains showed an elongated line of thunderstorms with cells that were largely contiguous, extending from northwestern TX into western portions of the Edwards Plateau, located out ahead of a cold front/dryline. Individual cells were observed to be moving briskly toward the NE or ENE at 30-40 kt, not posing a flash flood threat by themselves given their progressive forward motion. However, new cells were in the process of organizing over west-central TX between I-10 and I-20, with some orientation from SW to NE. These cells were forming within a region of approximately 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 0.7 to 1.0 inches of precipitable water (00Z SPC mesoanalysis). It appears cells to the north will develop/move farther east more quickly relative to those to the south given extrapolation of short term trends in radar and forecast boundary movement via the RAP. Despite nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer (low level development of CIN), there should be sufficient lift associated with the cold front and with the approach of an upper-level max in divergence (left exit region of a RAP-estimated 150-170 kt upper level jet streak from northern Mexico into western TX), coupled with 20-40 kt of southerly flow at 850 mb into the boundary or rain-cooled outflow, to support continued thunderstorm development over west-central TX into the early overnight. Alignment of thunderstorms from WSW to ENE will be parallel to the mean steering flow and set up potential training of 1-2 in/hr rainfall rates across a portion of west-central to north-central TX. If training is able to persist long enough, localized 2-3 inch totals could occur which may produce localized flash flooding given flash flood guidance of 2.5 to 3+ inches in 3 hours over the region. This scenario is partially dependent on sufficient instability lingering long enough to support higher rainfall rates, but it appears at least an isolated threat for flash flooding will exist through about 06Z. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8YvbBbxQJkUDdxil3cj888okaWRCQFuI3S_Mmpcsv-0O1Yy6ubu27-vVbZMG7QRexjNw= 9UL8xKARFNPwHwiIbuKr-K4$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...OUN...SJT... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 33849619 33579574 32659605 31699747 30749895=20 30450031 30490112 31120135 31540101 31960044=20 32759911 33439772 33779671=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .