Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Mar 24 2024 05:45:59 ACUS01 KWNS 240545 SWODY1 SPC AC 240544 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large hail and a few tornadoes are expected to be the main threats, but occasional severe winds may also occur. ....Central/Southern Plains... Strong southern-stream short-wave trough is forecast to shift across northwest Mexico early in the period, then eject into the southern High Plains during the afternoon. In response to this feature, lee surface low will deepen over southeast CO before ejecting into southwest KS during the evening. As should be expected, LLJ will increase markedly across the southern/central Plains, which will encourage boundary-layer moisture to advance north across OK into KS. Early this morning, leading edge of 50F surface dewpoints are located over southern OK. This air mass may spread as far north as I-70 by 25/00z, with upper 40s dewpoints likely being drawn toward the CO border, just north of the surface low. Strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across the High Plains of west TX into extreme southwest KS. As a result, convective temperatures will likely be breached by 20z within the exit region of a midlevel jet, where 500mb temperatures are forecast to cool below -20C. Very steep lapse rates and cold profiles will result in ample buoyancy for robust updrafts. Latest thinking is warm advection may generate some early-day elevated convection east of the dryline, but this activity will spread east and the focus for severe will be across the High Plains during peak heating. Scattered supercells are expected to develop immediately ahead of the surface low/dryline within a very dynamically forced environment. While surface dew points may never rise above the mid 50s downstream of this activity, surface-based buoyancy is expected to develop by late evening as far east as the I35 corridor as temperatures aloft cool. Large hail should be common with supercells, and some tornado threat also exists given the strong shear and surface-based nature of this activity. Convection will spread/develop east during the overnight hours as the upper trough progresses downstream. Farther south across TX, convection may initially struggle to develop along the dryline due to warmer midlevel temperatures and some CINH. However, significant midlevel cooling will be noted after 25/00z and profiles should adjust and become favorable for convective development. Latest model guidance, including the HREF, suggest this activity may be more linear in nature, though strongly sheared. Forward-propagating squall line may advance across TX and southern OK during the overnight hours, with an attendant risk for gusty winds, some hail and/or a brief tornado. The coverage of severe may remain a bit too isolated to warrant a SLGT risk, but this will be monitored and adjusted as conditions warrant. ...Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/24/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .