Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 24 2024 08:56:27

ACUS48 KWNS 240856
SWOD48
SPC AC 240854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Limited/isolated severe potential on Day 4/Wednesday should be
confined to parts of north FL into coastal/southeastern GA/SC, along
and southeast of a front. The southern portion of a highly amplified
upper trough should advance eastward across the southern Plains and
Southeast on Wednesday. It remains unclear whether sufficient
instability to support robust convection will develop across these
areas, owing to poor lapse rates aloft and only modest daytime
heating forecast. Still, some chance for occasional strong/gusty
winds may exist.

A southern-stream upper trough should continue moving eastward over
the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico on Day 5/Thursday. Strengthening
mid-level winds associated with this trough, and related deep-layer
shear, may support an isolated severe threat across portions of the
FL Peninsula Thursday. This threat should remain focused along and
ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front and developing surface
low over/near coastal GA/SC. Forecast instability across FL does not
currently appear strong enough to support more than an
isolated/marginal severe threat. Therefore, a 15% severe area has
not been included.

Once the cold front clears the East Coast, severe potential across
the CONUS appears generally low from Day 6/Friday into Day
7/Saturday. Medium-range guidance remains in reasonable agreement
that another upper trough/low will dig/amplify across the eastern
Pacific and West Coast states in this time frame. Low-level moisture
should gradually return northward across the southern/central Plains
as surface lee cyclogenesis occurs over the central High Plains.
But, the initially limited nature of this moisture, combined with
capping concerns, should inhibit robust thunderstorms across the
Plains through at least Saturday. By Day 8/Sunday, predictability of
the western CONUS upper trough/low's evolution is lessened. Even so,
some severe threat may eventually materialize across parts of the
Plains/MS Valley.

...Gleason.. 03/24/2024

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