Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 23 2024 19:49:55

ACUS01 KWNS 231949
SWODY1
SPC AC 231948

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected from now through early Sunday
morning.

....20Z Update...

....FL Keys...
Primary band of convection has shifted south/southeast of the Keys,
so severe probabilities have been removed from that area. A few
lingering thunderstorms remain possible through the evening and
overnight.

....Southern GA into Northeast FL...
Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible for the next few hours
as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. Modest buoyancy
and shear should keep the severe potential very low.

....Southern CA Coast...
Added a 10% thunder area for the southern CA coast region. A few
isolated flashes are possible within the band moving ashore now.
However, greater thunderstorm chances are expected later this
evening as another shortwave trough moves through the region.
Combination of cold mid-level temperatures and forcing for ascent
attendant to this shortwave could support a few updrafts deep enough
to produce lightning.

...Mosier.. 03/23/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024/

....South FL...
A surface cold front continues to sag southward across the southern
tip of FL into the Keys.  Scattered strong thunderstorms are
occurring along/ahead of the front, in a very moist/unstable and
moderately sheared environment.  The threat of a strong wind gust or
brief spin up will persist for another 1-2 hours before the front
moves through, veering low-level winds and stabilizing the air mass.


Elsewhere across the CONUS, no severe storm activity is expected
today.

$$

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