Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Mar 23 2024 18:55:10 AWUS01 KWNH 231855 FFGMPD MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-240100- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0111 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 254 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Areas affected...southern New England, southern New York state Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 231848Z - 240100Z Summary...Areas of 0.25-0.7 inch/hr rainfall rates are spreading northeastward into southern New England. These rates are expected to persist for around 3-5 hours or so, resulting in at least minor flood/flash flood issues through 01Z. Discussion...A relatively focused areas of heavy rainfall continues to migrate northeastward along and ahead of a strengthening low-level cyclone centered over Maryland. The area of heavier rain continues to be supported by strong convergence on the nose of a stout (70 kt) low-level jet extending from open waters east of the Mid-Atlantic into Long Island, NY. Over the past several hours, areas of 0.5-0.7 inch/hr rain rates have been noted, resulting in a number of road closures and creeks entering flood stage especially across eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. The area of heavier rain appears to be shifting northeastward into southern New York State and Connecticut while expanding across Rhode Island and southern Massachusetts. This pattern will likely result in about a 3-5 hour period of heavier rainfall across the discussion area, with totals reaching the 1-2.5 inch range during that time. These totals are likely to approach FFG thresholds (generally in the 2-2.5 inch/hr range/locally lower in urban areas) on at least an isolated basis. Widespread areas of minor flood impacts are expected, and isolated flash flood instances are possible in this regime. Current trends suggest that heavier rainfall should end across southern New York state/Long Island by around 21Z, while persisting across eastern Massachusetts/Rhode Island and vicinity through 01Z. Given warm advection across areas of southern New Hampshire, a few areas of snow-melt-induced excess runoff cannot be completely ruled out. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4ZnSkFSWBwUgw0J0w_3KIxDk8LlaYbcYHed-K01pbDExLRyBDRxyiDy6-xMyC2_LPL5o= REk7y3g3xTdW09vk0GyaI-s$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...GYX...OKX...PHI... ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 43637084 42527001 41416983 40217166 40367419=20 40967464 41637453 42587355 43407207=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .