Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Mar 23 2024 05:47:22 ACUS02 KWNS 230547 SWODY2 SPC AC 230545 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. Large hail and a few tornadoes should be the main threats, but occasional severe winds may also occur. ....Synopsis... Within a split-flow upper pattern over the CONUS, a southern-stream shortwave trough will eject northeastward Sunday from northern Mexico and the Southwest across the southern/central Plains. Strong forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave trough and related 70-90 kt mid-level jet will overspread a gradually destabilizing warm sector across KS/OK and vicinity through Sunday afternoon. At the surface, a lee cyclone initially over eastern CO will deepen through the day as it develops into western KS. Low-level mass response will encourage a slowly modifying Gulf airmass to advect northward across TX into OK/KS/NE along and south of a cold front. Due to a prior frontal passage, this initial low-level moisture return is expected to remain rather limited, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s along and east of an eastward-mixing dryline extending southward from the low across the southern/central High Plains. ....Southern/Central Plains... A cap should inhibit thunderstorm development through early Sunday afternoon. But, increasing ascent associated with the upper trough, along with rapidly cooling mid-level temperatures and gradually increasing low-level moisture, should act in tandem both to erode the cap and support around 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon. This narrow warm sector should be located along and very close to the surface dryline, which is forecast to mix eastward into parts of western KS/OK by peak afternoon heating. Convective initiation should occur by late afternoon across these areas with 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear present. This will be sufficient to support supercells with mainly a large hail threat initially as steep mid-level lapse rates aid updraft accelerations. By early Sunday evening, a southerly low-level jet is expected to strengthen further to around 45-60 kt over portions of central KS/OK. A narrow spatial and temporal window may exist around 23-03Z Sunday evening across this area where ongoing supercells may encounter somewhat greater low-level moisture (low to perhaps mid 50s surface dewpoints). During this same window, effective SRH will also rapidly increase in tandem with the low-level jet. The threat for a few tornadoes may exist with any persistent supercells given the strong low-level shear, but the modest low-level moisture could still be a somewhat limiting factor. Convection should tend to become elevated Sunday night as it spreads eastward into eastern KS/OK and vicinity. But, some potential for hail and strong/gusty winds may continue as thunderstorms attempt to grow upscale into small bowing line segments. Other thunderstorms with an isolated hail/wind threat may develop Sunday night across parts of TX as the cold front overtakes the retreating dryline. ...Gleason.. 03/23/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .