Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Mar 22 2024 19:49:49 ACUS01 KWNS 221949 SWODY1 SPC AC 221948 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MAINLAND FLORIDA... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two are possible through tonight over parts of the Florida Keys into a small part of the southern mainland of Florida. ....Florida... The main change with the 20z update is to removed the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk from the Florida Panhandle vicinity. Airmass destabilization has remained stunted by cloud cover and modest boundary-layer moisture. While some locally gusty winds are possible, especially along the immediate coast, severe potential is expected to remain low the remainder of the period. Severe probabilities remain unchanged across the Florida Keys into far South FL. Western portions of the Keys has seen more sunshine this afternoon in the wake of morning clouds and rain. This area may have better overall potential of surface-based convection into this evening/early overnight compared to areas further east where persistent convection and cloud cover will make airmass recovery difficult. It remains uncertain if the more bullish CAMs solutions (particularly the HRRR) depicting a robust squall moving across he Keys tonight will pan out. The current MCS over the eastern Gulf noted in IR imagery appears to be faster and a bit more south than model depictions. Given all of this, the Slight risk across the Key and extreme South FL remains uncertain and conditional. If enough low-level destabilization occurs, severe gusts and a tornado or two will be possible with evening/overnight convection. ...Leitman.. 03/22/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024/ ....South FL and the Keys... Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Multiple MCSs continue to be noted over the Gulf of Mexico today, tracking slowly eastward. The first system is affecting far south FL, with widespread precipitation and a few embedded thunderstorms. Dense cloud cover is limiting destabilization, suggesting that near-term severe threat is rather low. Nevertheless, an isolated cell cable of gusty winds or a brief spin-up is possible through mid-afternoon. A second MCS is seen on IR imagery over the central Gulf and will approach south FL and the Keys after dark. It is unclear whether destabilization will occur in the wake of the first system, but CAM guidance suggests a somewhat greater potential for organized convection and perhaps a few supercells in the 03-06z period. Forecast soundings indicate relatively strong low-level and deep layer shear during this time, promoting a risk of damaging winds or perhaps a tornado or two. This risk is conditional on the evolution of the first MCS and whether the air mass can recover. ....FL Panhandle... Another cluster of thunderstorms is occurring late this morning over southern AL and southeast LA. This activity will track eastward across the FL Panhandle through the day. Considerable cloud cover and limited low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s) will limit instability. However, most CAM solutions indicate a few stronger updrafts may develop later this afternoon. Relatively cool temperatures aloft and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates would suggest some risk of hail or gusty winds in any robust cells that can form. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .