Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Mar 22 2024 17:05:45 ACUS02 KWNS 221705 SWODY2 SPC AC 221704 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA/THE KEYS AND FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across parts of south Florida and the Keys, along with eastern North Carolina/the Outer Banks. ....Synopsis... A southern stream upper trough over the Gulf and southern U.S. early Saturday will shift east through the period, moving offshore the Southeast coast by Sunday morning. This will focus stronger deep-layer southwesterly flow across FL and near the coastal Carolinas through 00z. At the surface, a cold front will extend from the VA/NC Piedmont vicinity southwest into the eastern Gulf during the morning. The front will shift east/southeast during the day, moving offshore from the Carolinas by late afternoon/early evening, and sagging southward across FL through evening. ....NC coast/Outer Banks... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning ahead of the cold front in a low-level warm advection regime. While higher-quality boundary-layer moisture will likely remain offshore, weak instability is forecast in the vicinity of the Outer Banks. Gusty winds may accompany this activity. An additional round of thunderstorms associated with the cold front will be possible across far eastern NC and the Outer Banks later in the afternoon. Modest airmass recovery is possible if morning convection and cloud debris exit early enough, though instability is still expected to remain limited. Vertical shear will increase by afternoon and some organized convection is possible, posing mainly a conditional risk for locally strong gusts. ....South FL/FL Keys... Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing near the FL Keys/FL Straits Saturday morning as a continuation of thunderstorm clusters impacting the region during the Day 1 period. While the synoptic cold front will be over northern FL early in the day, a convectively reinforced outflow boundary/effective front will likely be draped across the southern FL Peninsula. Strong vertical shear will remain over the region through early afternoon before low-level flow becomes veered and midlevel subsidence starts to impinge on the region with the arrival of the cold front. Forecast soundings indicate moderate destabilization is possible given a very moist boundary-layer beneath modest midlevel lapse rates, though this remains conditional on airmass recovery. Any thunderstorms that develop may pose a risk for locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two through early afternoon. Thunderstorm activity should move offshore by mid/late afternoon. ...Leitman.. 03/22/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .