Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Mar 22 2024 07:29:52 ACUS03 KWNS 220729 SWODY3 SPC AC 220728 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. ....Southern/Central Plains... Within large-scale upper troughing encompassing much of the western states, a southern-stream shortwave trough initially over the Southwest and northern Mexico will eject northeastward Sunday across the southern/central Plains. Surface lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur in earnest ahead of this feature across eastern CO into western KS through Sunday evening. A strong low-level mass response will occur ahead of a sharpening dryline extending southward from the surface low across the southern/central High Plains. However, a prior frontal passage over the Gulf of Mexico will likely hinder the northward advance of rich low-level moisture across TX into OK/KS. Still, most guidance suggests that low to perhaps mid 50s surface dewpoints will advance as far north as parts of western/central KS by late Sunday afternoon. Strong ascent and mid-level height falls associated with the ejecting shortwave trough will begin to overspread the modestly unstable warm sector by mid afternoon. Even though instability is forecast to remain fairly weak given the limited low-level moisture, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates aloft should help compensate. Convective initiation along the dryline should occur by late Sunday afternoon or early evening. Deep-layer shear appears sufficiently strong to support supercells and a threat for severe hail with this initial development. The tornado threat is more uncertain given the modest low-level moisture, although a narrow window for a couple tornadoes may exist Sunday evening with any persistent supercell as 0-1-km shear quickly increases in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet. Convection should have a tendency to grow upscale fairly quickly Sunday evening/night as it continues eastward across central KS/OK in the presence of a 45-55 kt southerly low-level jet. This activity should eventually outpace the narrow warm sector, and slowly weaken. But, it should continue to pose some severe threat so long as thunderstorms can remain surface-based. Other thunderstorms posing an isolated hail/wind threat may develop Sunday night across parts of TX as the cold front overtakes the retreating dryline. ...Gleason.. 03/22/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .