Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 22 2024 00:52:48

ACUS01 KWNS 220052
SWODY1
SPC AC 220051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

....SUMMARY...
A few marginally severe storms are expected this evening from
central and east Texas into southwest Louisiana. Isolated large hail
and a few strong wind gusts will be possible.

....Central and East Texas/Southwest Louisiana...
The latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show an upper-level
trough over west-central Texas, with a relatively large area of
large-scale ascent located from near the trough eastward across much
of the Southern Plains. This is supporting scattered thunderstorm
development across much of Texas and in parts of southern Oklahoma.
Weak instability is present across much of central and east Texas,
where the RAP has MLCAPE generally near or below 1000 J/kg. This,
combined with cold temperatures aloft and moderate deep-layer shear
associated with the mid-level jet, will make isolated large hail a
possibility with the stronger storms this evening. Line segments
that become somewhat organized may also have wind-damage potential.
As the storms move further east this evening, a marginal severe
threat may develop across parts of east Texas and southwest
Louisiana.

...Broyles.. 03/22/2024

$$

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