Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Mar 21 2024 19:33:48 ACUS01 KWNS 211933 SWODY1 SPC AC 211932 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce a few instances of hail in the inch to inch-and-a-half range, and locally strong gusts across parts of northern and central Texas this through this evening. Additional strong storms overnight may produce locally strong gusts and small hail across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ....20z Update... The only changes with the 20z update were to adjust the 10 percent general thunderstorm probabilities based on latest trends and short term guidance. Severe probabilities are unchanged across TX into southwest LA. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through late afternoon and into this evening, posing a risk for a few instances of large hail and strong gusts. For more information on short term severe potential reference MCD 0267. While one or more bowing clusters is expected to develop southeast toward southeast TX/southwest LA, convection is expected to remain elevated given a poor low-level thermodynamic environment and increasing boundary-layer inhibition during the nighttime hours. This should limit a greater damaging wind risk overnight. ...Leitman.. 03/21/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/ ....Northern and central Texas to southwestern Louisiana... Widespread morning convection, and associated/expansive low cloud cover, persists per recent radar and visible satellite imagery across roughly the eastern half of Texas. Farther to the west/northwest, from the Big Country southward toward the Concho Valley, and areas west, lack of cloud cover will permit diurnal heating, which -- given 50s dewpoints -- will contribute to modest (500 to 1000 J/kg) mixed-layer CAPE this afternoon. As ascent associated with the upper disturbance currently moving across eastern New Mexico spreads into Texas, expect storms to develop -- initially cellularly but then possibly growing upscale into eastward-moving bands. Small hail appears likely, but the low-topped nature of the storms, the rather limited CAPE, and somewhat marginal deep-layer shear suggests that more intense, rotating updrafts may be somewhat difficult to be sustained. Therefore, coverage of severe-caliber hail (likely limited to the inch to inch-and-a-half range) should remain isolated. As such, will maintain only MRGL/5% risk at this time. A few stronger wind gusts will also be possible, but likewise it appears that 5% probability is appropriate per current expectations. Storms will spread eastward across eastern Texas overnight, and eventually into southwestern Louisiana, but will be moving into areas where widespread convection will have occurred, which should limit any more appreciable severe potential. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .