Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Mar 21 2024 12:48:13

ACUS01 KWNS 211248
SWODY1
SPC AC 211246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO EARLY
TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST TX...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large hail and strong wind
gusts are possible from the northwest Gulf coast into central Texas.

....TX area through tonight...
Elevated thunderstorm development is underway this morning over the
middle TX coastal plain, near and just north of a coastal front.
Per the 12z CRP/BRO soundings, the environment is sufficient for a
couple of slightly elevated supercells capable of producing isolated
1-2 inch diameter hail and gusts up to 60 mph.  The storms are
expected to gradually grow upscale in the warm advection regime
through the morning, with the likelihood that a cluster/MCS will
evolve and move offshore toward midday/early afternoon.

Farther west, a midlevel shortwave trough over west TX/NM will
progress eastward to central TX this evening, accompanied by a weak
surface reflection.  Surface heating in cloud breaks and
boundary-layer dewpoints in the 55-60 F range will boost MLCAPE into
the 500-1000 J/kg range across central into northwest TX.  The
destabilization and weakening convective inhibition, in combination
with the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough, will support
scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon (~20-21z).
Steepening low-midlevel lapse rates and modestly long/relatively
straight hodographs (effective bulk shear 25-35 kt) will favor a mix
of clusters and some supercell structures capable of producing
isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches) and outflow gusts of 50-60 mph.
The convection will subsequently spread east-southeastward across
central TX this evening and into southeast TX and possibly far
southwest LA tonight.

...Thompson/Grams.. 03/21/2024

$$

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