Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Mar 20 2024 16:34:37 ACUS01 KWNS 201634 SWODY1 SPC AC 201633 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL REGION...AND OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon/evening across parts of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Hail will be possible early Thursday morning across the Texas Coastal Plain vicinty. ....Parts of western and central Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Texas... Rather steep mid-level lapse rates across the Oklahoma/Texas area are contributing to isolated/high-based convection across central Oklahoma late this morning. Daytime heating of a very modestly moist boundary layer will push mixed-layer CAPE values up to 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE locally across portions of the Texas Panhandle/northwestern Texas and into western and central Oklahoma this afternoon. This will be sufficient -- given modest ascent in the vicinity of weak surface low pressure over northern Oklahoma and associated surface troughing extending southwestward -- to permit additional/new storm development this afternoon. With a rather deep mixed-layer evolving through peak heating, a few strong wind gusts could occur near more intense convection. Marginal hail also cannot be ruled out, given ample shear and the steep mid-level lapse rates. Overall risk will remain limited and isolated. ....Middle Texas Coast vicinity... Low-level warm advection/quasi-geostrophic ascent will increase across eastern Texas tonight, as short-wave troughing shifts into the southern Plains from northern Mexico. Atop a low-level stable layer, steep mid-level lapse rates may support development of isolated thunderstorms very late in the period, in response to the increasing ascent. With ample cloud-layer shear for sustained updrafts, some risk for hail may evolve toward the end of the period, with a couple of the strongest storms -- largely in the inch to inch-and-a-half range. ....Elsewhere... Very weak convection is ongoing across the Northeast, as strong upper troughing shifts across the region. Convection will remain very low-topped and likely with little to no lightning given lack of appreciable CAPE. However, very strong deep-layer flow across the region will likely promote gusty winds, and associated tree damage this afternoon/evening. ...Goss/Weinman.. 03/20/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .