Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Mar 20 2024 07:30:50 ACUS03 KWNS 200730 SWODY3 SPC AC 200729 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact the northeastern Gulf coastal waters into immediate coast vicinity and the Florida Keys into portions of southern Florida, Friday through Friday night. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. ....Synopsis... Blocking centered over the northeastern Pacific may generally persist through this period, but models suggest that some weakening may commence as a more progressive regime gradually develops across the central toward eastern mid-latitude Pacific. Models vary concerning the extent of this weakening, and this probably will have at least some impact on developments within the broadly confluent split downstream flow across North America. In general, another cold intrusion is forecast to the lee of the Rockies, as far south as the Texas Panhandle/Red River Valley and Mid South, and as far east as the Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes by 12Z Saturday. This will occur to the west and south of a mid-level low becoming quasi-stationary near the southwestern shores of Hudson Bay. In lower latitudes, mid-level troughing is generally forecast to slowly progress east of the lower Mississippi Valley/northwestern Gulf coast region Friday, with one increasingly sheared perturbation shifting toward the southern Appalachians and another perhaps more notable perturbation digging into the north central/northeastern Gulf by early Saturday. Models differ concerning these features, and the larger-scale troughing will be preceded by a subtropical perturbation progressing across the Florida peninsula early Friday. And there is substantive spread concerning the further evolution of a broad, modest area of surface low pressure overspreading the eastern Gulf Coast/South Atlantic Coast by the end of the period. ....Southeast... An initially dry/potentially cool low-level environment across much of the eastern Gulf Coast into Florida peninsula will precede considerable convective development expected to be ongoing at 12Z Friday across the north central Gulf coast/lower Mississippi Valley vicinity, and across the central into northeastern Gulf of Mexico. As this activity continues to spread eastward and northeastward with the large-scale forcing for ascent, forecast soundings indicate a tendency for profiles to trend saturated moist adiabatic. However, there is at least some signal within model output that a warm front may advance from the southeastern Gulf of Mexico across the Florida Keys and portions of the southern Florida peninsula, coincident with an organized cluster of thunderstorms which could pose a risk for producing damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes. Thereafter, trailing outflow may provide a focus for continuing thunderstorm development in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorm development is possible within the warm sector of the developing area of low pressure, across the northeastern/eastern Gulf of Mexico, some of which might impact the coastal waters and immediate coast Friday night. However, the extent of this potential will probably depend on the details of the surface low evolution, which remains unclear at this time. ...Kerr.. 03/20/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .