Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Mar 19 2024 19:47:49

ACUS01 KWNS 191947
SWODY1
SPC AC 191945

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

No changes were required for the 20Z update, with only general
thunderstorms expected across the Southwest.

...Jewell.. 03/19/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/

....Synopsis...
A closed midlevel low will move gradually eastward across the
Southwest through the period, while associated weak DCVA overspreads
the region. This large-scale ascent will promote scattered diurnal
thunderstorms, given cold temperatures aloft/steepening deep-layer
lapse rates. On the backside of the closed midlevel low, diurnal
heating and the steep midlevel lapse rates will also support
isolated thunderstorms across parts of southern CA into the Sierra
-- largely driven by orographic lift/terrain circulations.

$$

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