Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Mar 19 2024 17:26:43 FOUS30 KWBC 191726 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 126 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Day 1 Valid 16Z Tue Mar 19 2024 - 12Z Wed Mar 20 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent.=20 Oravec Day 2 Valid 12Z Wed Mar 20 2024 - 12Z Thu Mar 21 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent.=20 Churchill Day 3 Valid 12Z Thu Mar 21 2024 - 12Z Fri Mar 22 2024 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST... A blocked upper-low over the Southwest will finally begin to open up and eject eastward into the Southern Plains on Wednesday, then progged to dig on approach to the western Gulf Coast on Thursday.=20 An impulse in the southern (subtropical) stream should help to amplify the shortwave, leading to a period of modest return flow from the Gulf into portions of the western and central Gulf Coast region. PWATs should reach near 1.5" (near the 75th percentile climatologically) on Thursday, and instability may be sufficient enough near the coastline for organized convective activity. While guidance at this range still has quite a wide array of solutions,=20 it is notable that ensemble guidance (particularly the GEFS) suggests the potential for localized 3" exceedance from the southeast TX coast to south-central LA coast. Maintained the=20 inherited Marginal Risk (with some adjustments) for this forecast=20 cycle with the potential for localized totals in the 3-5" range=20 (though will wait for more agreement and the inclusion of hi- res=20 CAMs before considering any targeted upgrades to Slight Risk). Churchill Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6zsEWLjR_HyL9ONRCTvCsdrDszjzl9gNZuwjeUrvShM5= AGj3DCTBeQhHRiFpcQcBoqh62HMS_m-PgjKH_CrLIIq4c7o$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6zsEWLjR_HyL9ONRCTvCsdrDszjzl9gNZuwjeUrvShM5= AGj3DCTBeQhHRiFpcQcBoqh62HMS_m-PgjKH_CrLnmaj8YU$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6zsEWLjR_HyL9ONRCTvCsdrDszjzl9gNZuwjeUrvShM5= AGj3DCTBeQhHRiFpcQcBoqh62HMS_m-PgjKH_CrLjmWjJL4$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .