Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Mar 19 2024 17:11:45 ACUS02 KWNS 191711 SWODY2 SPC AC 191709 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT... ....SUMMARY... A few clusters of thunderstorms could develop across parts Texas and western Oklahoma late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Some of this activity may pose a marginal hail or gusty wind risk. ....Synopsis... On Wednesday, a large area of cyclonic flow aloft will extend from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with an upper low moving from eastern Ontario into ME. Farther south, a southern-stream jet will extend from Mexico across much of the Southeast and Gulf Of Mexico, with an embedded shortwave trough sweeping across northern Mexico and NM through 00Z. This wave will emerge into far western TX by 12Z Thursday, with moderate southwest flow aloft across much of TX. Cool midlevel temperatures will exist with this wave with -20 C at 500 mb into the TX Panhandle, and -16 C toward southeast TX where shortwave ridging will occur. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the Southeast, with initial low-level moisture return into far southern TX during the day. A trough will develop with strong heating near the NM/TX border, with a east-west oriented front stalling over northern OK and AR. ....TX Panhandle into northwest OK... Strong surface heating combined with cooling aloft will result in very steep lapse rates across the region, although moisture will be limited. Still, a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE is forecast in the vicinity of the surface trough. Lift associated with the approaching trough and sufficient surface convergence should yield scattered storms by late afternoon, from the TX Panhandle into western OK. Inverted-V type profiles will support locally strong gusts, while cold temperatures aloft and lengthy mid to upper hodographs support primarily sub-severe hail, although an isolated 1.00" report is possible. ....Southeast TX overnight... Moisture will increase late Wednesday night with upper 60s F dewpoints across the coastal counties south of a warm front. Although capping will exist initially, elevated instability and continued cooling aloft may support scattered elevated thunderstorms. The primary concern here will be hail as instability increases to over 1500 J/kg and deep-layer shear becomes favorable. The threat appears highly conditional as storm coverage may be meager. ...Jewell.. 03/19/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .