Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Mar 19 2024 09:01:13 ACUS48 KWNS 190901 SWOD48 SPC AC 190859 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ....DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to suggest that flow will trend more progressive across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific by early this coming weekend. As this occurs, a blocking regime initially centered over the northeastern Pacific is forecast to breakdown, with flow subsequently amplifying downstream, across the U.S. into western Atlantic. It appears that this will include mid/upper trough amplification across and offshore of the southern Atlantic coast on Saturday, accompanied by strengthening cyclogenesis. Surface frontal wave development is still generally forecast to remain more modest across the northeastern Gulf/eastern Gulf Coast into Georgia/Carolina Atlantic coast vicinity Friday through Friday night, but there may be considerable convective development within a destabilizing environment along a warm frontal zone across the Gulf of Mexico by early Friday. It appears that this will spread across the Florida peninsula and Florida Keys during the day Friday. However, models suggest that an initially (relatively) dry/potentially cool environment may preclude an appreciable risk of severe storms, as initial convection spreads into this environment, weakens and suppresses destabilization. Late this coming weekend into early next week, models continue to suggest that short wave perturbations, within amplifying large-scale mid-level troughing spreading inland of the Pacific coast through the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, may support significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies. However, severe weather potential in association with this still seems largely conditioned on the degree of warm sector destabilization, which remains unclear. In the wake of one significant intrusion of cool/dry air through much of the northern Gulf Basin, reinforced at least somewhat in the wake of the amplifying system off the South Atlantic coast early this weekend, low-level moisture return to the warm sector remains in question. More substantive low-level moistening appears probable into the southeastern Great Plains on Monday, compared to the central/southern high plains on Sunday. However, as this occurs and model spread becomes more pronounced concerning a short wave emerging from the Southwest. ...Kerr.. 03/19/2024 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .