Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 18 2024 09:01:09

ACUS48 KWNS 180901
SWOD48
SPC AC 180859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models suggest that a blocking pattern evolving across
the northeastern Pacific may be relatively short-lived, with flow
across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific becoming more
progressive.  As a high initially centered near or southwest of the
Gulf of Alaska breaks down, it appears that troughing within a
couple of initial streams to its east will come in phase and
contribute to amplifying larger-scale troughing developing inland of
the Pacific coast early next weekend, then into the Great Plains by
early next week. Embedded short waves progressing through this
regime could provide support for significant surface cyclogenesis to
the lee of the Rockies, particularly by next Sunday into Monday.

There appears a general consensus among latest guidance that a
developing cyclone across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity,
trailing dryline southward into northwest Texas, and surface front
extending east-northeastward across Kansas into the lower Missouri
Valley could provide focus for organized severe thunderstorm
development Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.  The cyclone may
then migrate northeastward along the front across the lower Missouri
Valley into the Upper Midwest Monday through Monday night,
accompanied by a potentially more widespread severe weather threat
across the southeastern Great Plains and lower/middle Mississippi
Valleys.

However, potential also exists for this to be considerably modulated
by cold air, initially banked up against the northern U.S. and
Canadian Rockies into much of the upper Mississippi Valley, which
may tend to nose further southward through the high plains prior to
the emergence of the primary short wave trough.  Furthermore, in the
wake of an amplifying mid-level trough and associated cyclogenesis
still forecast offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard, low-level
moistening on southerly return flow off the Gulf of Mexico may not
be optimal.

...Kerr.. 03/18/2024

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