Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 18 2024 05:39:04

ACUS01 KWNS 180539
SWODY1
SPC AC 180537

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over most of the Florida
Peninsula through the late afternoon before the severe risk
diminishes by early evening.

....FL Peninsula...
A large-scale mid-level trough over the Great Lakes/MS Valley will
pivot east through the Eastern Seaboard during the period.  The
primary belt of stronger ascent/flow associated with the upper
trough will move across the southern Appalachian states and be
displaced from the FL Peninsula.  In the low levels, a cold front
will gradually push south during the day and reach the FL Straits by
late evening.  However, before frontal passage, a moist airmass
characterized by mainly 60s dewpoints across the Peninsula, will
become weakly to moderately unstable by late morning into the
afternoon (500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE).  Strong mid to high-level westerly
flow will aid in some storm organization and perhaps yield a couple
of transient supercells.  Models currently indicate isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms developing during day.  Some of the
stronger storms may be capable of a localized threat for wind damage
and/or hail risk.  The stronger thunderstorms will likely weaken by
early evening with the severe threat diminishing.

...Smith/Supinie.. 03/18/2024

$$

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