Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 17 2024 20:17:30

FOUS30 KWBC 172017
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Day 1

Valid 1951Z Mon Mar 18 2024 - 12Z Mon Mar 18 2024


The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

....Special Update...

As expected, the MCS that caused a flash flooding threat across
Louisiana earlier this afternoon as quickly raced off to the east
and weakened. With no rain ongoing in the previous Slight Risk=20
area now, have downgraded all of Louisiana.

Further east, the remnants of the MCS are moving fast enough that
any heavy rainfall associated therewith is not expected to last
long enough to produce flash flooding. The Marginal for this area
has been removed.

Finally, further west into central Texas, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are moving across portions of the state that were hit
with recent heavy rainfall. However, that convection is mostly
showers, and despite some possibility a heavier storm may move over
a particularly flood sensitive area, that threat appears minimal at
this time. This area will continue to be monitored, but for now it
appears the flash flooding threat falls below the 5% threshold for
a Marginal Risk.

Thus, all risk areas are removed for the period.

Wegman


Day 2

Valid 12Z Mon Mar 18 2024 - 12Z Tue Mar 19 2024



The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman


Day 3

Valid 12Z Tue Mar 19 2024 - 12Z Wed Mar 20 2024



The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_S9auLpn2VGXqTEBVDUJn30srbs0WS8eYk8DJkynXwOm=
XyMAyEtOI4I3vEkkw_HnXB9mSh4-WiTrAZVX822KNWwit8o$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_S9auLpn2VGXqTEBVDUJn30srbs0WS8eYk8DJkynXwOm=
XyMAyEtOI4I3vEkkw_HnXB9mSh4-WiTrAZVX822Kx9ghwlo$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_S9auLpn2VGXqTEBVDUJn30srbs0WS8eYk8DJkynXwOm=
XyMAyEtOI4I3vEkkw_HnXB9mSh4-WiTrAZVX822K3Kc9yV0$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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