Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Mar 17 2024 19:51:29 ACUS01 KWNS 171951 SWODY1 SPC AC 171949 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND THROUGH EARLY EVENING... ....SUMMARY... Local/isolated risk for gusty/damaging winds remains possible the remainder of the afternoon/early evening across the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend area. ....20z Update... The main change with the 20z update was to trim marginal severe probabilities across far southeast LA and the coastal waters south of southern MS/AL behind the ongoing clusters of storms over the northern Gulf. Stronger heating has occurred downstream from this cluster across parts of the FL Panhandle and FL Big Bend vicinity. While instability remain low (less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE), some potential for a few strong gusts will continue the remainder of the afternoon/early evening. Otherwise, the only other changes were to trim portions of the general thunderstorm probability over TX into LA/MS/AL. ...Leitman.. 03/17/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024/ ....Gulf Coastal area from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend... A well-defined MCS with embedded MCV is moving eastward across the southeastern Louisiana vicinity late this morning, along the west-to-east synoptic cold front lying roughly across the Gulf Coast region. West of this convective complex, weak quasi-geostrophic ascent across Texas -- within a zone of modest low-level warm advection beneath minor mid-level disturbances moving through fast west-southwesterly flow aloft southeast of the Desert Southwest upper low -- will support occasional deep convection. However, aside from a couple of sporadic stronger storms and possibly brief/marginally severe hail/wind risk locally, risk appears too low to require inclusion of probabilities in the current outlook. East of the MCS, limited severe risk remains apparent across coastal areas, though the strongest storms should remain over the northern Gulf. Still, gusty/locally damaging winds may occur, warranting continuation of 5% wind probability as far east as the Florida Big Bend region through tonight. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .