Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Mar 17 2024 17:06:00 ACUS02 KWNS 171705 SWODY2 SPC AC 171704 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may move inland off the Gulf of Mexico into portions of the northern and central Florida peninsula early Monday. Additional thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along the east-central and southeast Florida coast. Strong gusts and hail may accompany this activity. ....FL Peninsula... An upper trough over the Great Lakes and MS Valley will pivot east/southeast across the eastern U.S. on Monday. Forecast guidance depicts a shortwave perturbation in the base of the trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico shifting east across northern/north-central FL Monday morning. Deep-layer westerly flow will increase with southward extent across the FL Panhandle through the afternoon, with 30-40 kt 850-700 mb flow common ahead of southward-sagging surface boundary. Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of north-central FL Monday morning. Gusty winds may accompany this activity as it spreads east the first few hours of the forecast period. A more conditional severe thunderstorm risk may develop during the afternoon further south across parts of the east-central/southeast coast. The NAM appears to be an outlier with the strength of an EML, maintaining capping through the period. The RAP/HRRR/GFS show weaker capping around 700 mb with full erosion of the cap by afternoon. Given favorable vertical shear (0-6 effective shear around 40 kt), steep midlevel lapse rates (around 7-7.5 C/km) and MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg, at least a conditional risk for a couple of severe storms appears plausible. Large-scale ascent will remain weak over the area, and veered low-level flow will limit low-level convergence along the southward-developing surface front. If a well-defined sea breeze develops along the southeast Peninsula, this could allow for a few storms to develop during the afternoon/early evening, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. For this reason, have expanded the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) to encompass the southeast Peninsula. ...Leitman.. 03/17/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .