Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 17 2024 16:24:32

ACUS01 KWNS 171624
SWODY1
SPC AC 171622

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MOUTH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...

....SUMMARY...
Local/isolated risk for gusty/damaging winds remains possible today
from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend area.

....Gulf Coastal area from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Big
Bend...
A well-defined MCS with embedded MCV is moving eastward across the
southeastern Louisiana vicinity late this morning, along the
west-to-east synoptic cold front lying roughly across the Gulf Coast
region.

West of this convective complex, weak quasi-geostrophic ascent
across Texas -- within a zone of modest low-level warm advection
beneath minor mid-level disturbances moving through fast
west-southwesterly flow aloft southeast of the Desert Southwest
upper low -- will support occasional deep convection.  However,
aside from a couple of sporadic stronger storms and possibly
brief/marginally severe hail/wind risk locally, risk appears too low
to require inclusion of probabilities in the current outlook.

East of the MCS, limited severe risk remains apparent across coastal
areas, though the strongest storms should remain over the northern
Gulf.  Still, gusty/locally damaging winds may occur, warranting
continuation of 5% wind probability as far east as the Florida Big
Bend region through tonight.

...Goss/Weinman.. 03/17/2024

$$

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