Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Mar 17 2024 08:48:56 ACUS48 KWNS 170848 SWOD48 SPC AC 170847 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ....DISCUSSION... The latest medium-range model output indicates little substantive change to general forecast trends for the middle to latter portion of the coming work week. Initial large-scale mid-level troughing, east of the Mississippi Valley through western Atlantic, is forecast to gradually deamplify and shift into the northern Atlantic. Within a more zonal split flow in its wake, a low amplitude wave emerging from the Southwest may dig east-southeast of the Rockies through much of the Southeast, before possibly contributing to substantive surface cyclogenesis within amplifying flow offshore of the southern Atlantic coast early next weekend. Upstream, flow evolution subsequent to the development of a blocking high near the Gulf of Alaska is much more unclear, based on the spread evident within the model output. In general, it appears that large-scale mid-level troughing may develop inland of the U.S. Pacific coast through the Great Plains next weekend, contributing to potential for significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Rockies. However, this may be preceded by a vigorous perturbation digging south of the Canadian Arctic, toward the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, before turning eastward. This probably will be accompanied by another significant cold intrusion to the lee of the Canadian/U.S. Rockies, though it remains unclear how far south this air mass may penetrate before slowing and modifying, which will have at least some impact on the location and strength of any lee cyclogenesis. In the wake of the amplifying wave offshore of the south Atlantic coast, moistening on strengthening southerly return flow off a modifying Gulf of Mexico boundary layer will probably be limited as well, at least initially. But it is not out of the question that developments could support increasing organized severe weather potential across parts of the Great Plains into Mississippi Valley by late next weekend, if not earlier. ...Kerr.. 03/17/2024 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .