Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 17 2024 07:15:26

ACUS03 KWNS 170715
SWODY3
SPC AC 170714

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
U.S., Tuesday through Tuesday night.

....Discussion...
It appears that a high will become better established during this
period near or west of the Gulf of Alaska, within amplified split
flow emanating from the western mid-latitude Pacific.  Downstream,
models suggest that the blocking regime inland of the U.S. Pacific
coast will continue to break down, and the remnant Southwestern low
may begin to transition to a low amplitude wave.  Eastward progress
toward the southern Rockies will likely be slow, with flow east of
the southern Rockies and northern Mexican plateau strongly
confluent, as large-scale downstream troughing generally maintains
higher amplitude east of the Mississippi Valley into the western
Atlantic.

In the wake of this trough, the boundary layer across all but
southwestern portions of the Gulf Basin will likely have been
stabilized by a significant intrusion of cool/dry air by early
Tuesday.  However, within a developing area of mid-level ascent
(supported by warm advection based around 700 mb) spreading
northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley Tuesday morning, residual
moisture farther aloft may contribute to weak destabilization, and
elevated convection which may become capable of producing some
lightning.

Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms may generally remain confined
to portions of the Colorado Plateau and southern Rockies Tuesday
into Tuesday evening, aided by weak destabilization beneath the
mid-level cold pool associated with the eastward migrating short
wave perturbation.

...Kerr.. 03/17/2024

$$

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