Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 17 2024 05:28:57

ACUS01 KWNS 170528
SWODY1
SPC AC 170527

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from south-central Texas
eastward along the northern Gulf Coast through the early evening.

....Gulf Coast states...
A mid-level speed max initially over south TX will move east to the
northeast Gulf Coast through the evening, while a large-scale trough
amplifies over the Great Lakes/eastern U.S.  A frontal zone draped
along the northern Gulf Coast will move little through the midday
before a cold front accelerates southward over the northwest Gulf
Coast.  Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
across parts of the coastal plain of TX into southwest LA.  A
relatively moist and weakly unstable environment amidst strong
deep-layer shear may yield a few strong to locally severe
thunderstorms.  Model guidance indicates embedded clusters of
thunderstorms within a broader rain shield over LA will gradually
move east into the FL Panhandle towards the evening, as the risk for
strong thunderstorms diminishes.

...Smith/Supinie.. 03/17/2024

$$

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